Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?

Abstract

This paper considers Ireland’s growth prospects through 2030. Real GDP growth averaging 3 per cent per year is possible but will require a stronger labour productivity growth performance than is currently projected by OECD. Success depends on a favourable external environment and would be jeopardised by a return to the pre-crisis “bubble economy” but can be underpinned by exploiting the remaining scope for catch-up growth. “Appropriate growth theory” provides a useful lens through which to review Ireland’s growth policy and performance as a “close-to-frontier” economy and this underlines the importance of further strengthening and rationalising innovation policies.